  Dougw Member Username: Dougw Post Number: 1352 Registered: 11-2003 |
I finally got a chance to play around with a real estate estimator website which I heard about recently: http://zillow.com The main point of the site is to try to provide rough price estimates for homes across the country. In displaying the time graphs, one interesting finding is that home values in Wayne County/Detroit (and even all of Michigan) took a nosedive in late 2005/early 2006, and have since recovered. Here's the Wayne County chart over the last 10 years (Wayne Co is the red line) :  Here's link that takes you to that chart (although you have to turn on the Detroit/Wayne/MI/USA checkboxes and turn off the other ones) -- http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=10years&zpid=62349276 Here's Oakland county:  Oakland county didn't have the same nosedive & recovery, although it's still interesting to note that the typical USA home price estimate rocketed past Oakland county in the last couple of years. Anyway, I don't know what their methodology is for estimating home values, or how accurate their data is, but it's still tempting to come up with theories as to why there was the sudden plunge/recovery in early 2006: Theory 1: General panic in late 2005 over bankruptcy talk surrounding GM and Ford, followed by people coming to their senses that while we're not in great shape, we're not completely doomed either. Theory 2: A rash of mortgage fraud and foreclosures in Wayne County pushing down on sale prices for a time, as many homes went up for auction. Theory 3: zillow.com's methodology is not that good. Feel free to formulate your own theories. | ||
Trainman Member Username: Trainman Post Number: 208 Registered: 04-2006 |
My home value went down 18 percent in four monthes due the SMART Livonia opt out. Why do the DYers not support my pettion drive???? Maybe your city is next????? http://savethefueltax.org | ||
Mikeg Member Username: Mikeg Post Number: 316 Registered: 12-2005 |
Theory 1: General panic in late 2005 over the bankruptcy of Delphi Corporation, which has facilities all over the state of Michigan, plus the potential bankruptcy talk surrounding GM and Ford, followed by people who were unencumbered with rising ARM payments and a lack of equity coming to their senses and taking advantage of a buyers market. (Message edited by Mikeg on September 26, 2006) | ||
Lmichigan Member Username: Lmichigan Post Number: 4493 Registered: 10-2003 |
Didn't most Detroit home values over that time rise considerably, though? | ||
Dougw Member Username: Dougw Post Number: 1354 Registered: 11-2003 |
That's a good addition to my theory, Mikeg... how could I forget Delphi. Lmich, Detroit home valuations are on the first graph in orange, closely parallelling the Wayne County values. I believe Detroit home values had their biggest jump in the mid-90's, predating the above graph... although you can still see a steady climb up until 2005. | ||
Detroitplanner Member Username: Detroitplanner Post Number: 213 Registered: 04-2006 |
Hate to damper things but I have found zillow to be a bit unreliable. My house is set at $60,000 but the piece of crap next door is set at $200,000! My house would go for about $100k-115k. | ||
Dougw Member Username: Dougw Post Number: 1355 Registered: 11-2003 |
I agree that it's not too reliable for individual homes, mainly because it can't really know whether a particular house is in great condition or if it's a fixer-upper. This is especially true in a city like Detroit where the condition of individual homes varies wildly. However, from what I've seen I think the valuations are pretty good in the aggregate, for example, estimating the average home value in a particular block or neighborhood. | ||
Ro_resident Member Username: Ro_resident Post Number: 176 Registered: 11-2003 |
I think the upturn in the valuation in the past few months is an artifact of how they collect and report data. Off of their web site: "Note: Value trends are based on Zestimate and Zindex values, not sale prices[.]" They probably use a method that has a moving average plus some inflationary factor for extrapolating the current value of the home. For long term values of homes, the increase is positive. In the short term, values have been going down. This downturn is overwhelmed by the historical data. This happens a lot in economic modeling, especially in flat or periods that are opposite historical trends. | ||
Harsensis Member Username: Harsensis Post Number: 81 Registered: 07-2005 |
Last I heard Wayne County had the highest foreclosure rate in the country. I know of a number of foreclosed houses in GP. I'm watching one right around the corner to see what happens to it, I think it might have been abandoned also. Most of the foreclosed houses have mortgages that are higher than the houses are worth. |
