Bvos Member Username: Bvos
Post Number: 1780 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 70.228.57.79
| Posted on Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 9:35 pm: | |
Just heard from a very reliable source yesterday that the AA to Detroit rail study has been delayed indefinately as the model they are using is not working as they thought. The first thing that came to my mind when I heard the model was not working was the Addams Family kids blowing up their toy trains. However the model not working means the numbers and such are not working the way they originally thought. So it appears that there's some major work still to be done before any public announcements will be made. |
Thecarl
Member Username: Thecarl
Post Number: 901 Registered: 04-2005 Posted From: 69.14.30.175
| Posted on Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 11:59 pm: | |
oh, hey, bvos...you weren't one of the ones who ragged on me when i said this project was going nowhere, and that it was just an effort to stuff big pork dollars into the pockets of election donors with research teams conducting feasibility studies for a project going nowhere? in any event - quelle suprise. |
Wsukid Member Username: Wsukid
Post Number: 150 Registered: 06-2004 Posted From: 69.14.145.38
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 12:49 am: | |
Carl I dont think it is an effort to bring pork dollars to election donors I truly believe SEMCOG is so tilted against mass transit that they will do anything to stop it. Although I am not to suprised. All I have to do is to look at their track record and see what they have done in terms of money being spent on road construction/ widening and transit dollars. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 1205 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 3:39 am: | |
If somebody doesn't believe that grant proposals and "studies" don't put $$$ into profs pockets, well, that person should buy one of the bridges I'm unloading, cheap. |
Bvos Member Username: Bvos
Post Number: 1785 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 134.215.223.211
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 10:08 am: | |
Thecarl, The project isn't dead, it's just undergoing more work. These sorts of things happen during studies and transit modeling, especially on a metropolitan wide scale like this. The fact that Detroit has no real mass transit system makes this sort of study all the more difficult. What it involves is other folks looking at the model the consultants have developed and testing it. Now that outside groups have tested the model, the consultants have some tweaking to do to fix the areas that didn't pan out as thought. |
Tetsua Member Username: Tetsua
Post Number: 720 Registered: 01-2004 Posted From: 68.61.194.237
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 10:40 am: | |
Bvos, Can you please tell more about the model? |
Dougw Member Username: Dougw
Post Number: 1261 Registered: 11-2003 Posted From: 136.2.1.153
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 10:48 am: | |
I wonder if the issues are more with cost modeling, or ridership modeling, or both? Thinking about it, I suppose they're probably both part of the same model, as ridership would be affected by fare amounts, and ridership level affects the total operational cost, etc. I wonder if the report will say anything about economic impact along the transit lines and around transit stops, or if it's only going to be focused on moving people around. |
Andylinn Member Username: Andylinn
Post Number: 180 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 64.141.144.2
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 1:09 pm: | |
that's the big very obvious thing to me - think of the regional tourism one could gain from this.. i.e "dear tourist, come visit the detroit Detroit-Ann Arbor corridor, where we have this art museum, this car museum, this hands on museum, these AMAZING restaurants... yadda yadda yadda... *** plus think how this will bolster the attraction of Wayne State, UDM, Eastern, and U-M... bolster the attraction og doing business in the corridor... i think it's key that leaders realize how this will really help lift the cities it passes through... once this is done, i wil seriously sell my car.. |
Cabasse Member Username: Cabasse
Post Number: 10 Registered: 01-2006 Posted From: 68.42.169.74
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 1:35 pm: | |
a disappointing setback. in my spare time, i'd just finished drawing an elaborate map in adobe illustrator (just for the hell of it, because i'm a transit nerd) based on proposal crt1a from their preliminary june report, and this is what i read a couple of days later. figures! i really hope that the reasons have to do with them really wanting success from day one, and not trying to forget it all. bvos, without trying to pry too much from you, can you be any less general than "indefinitely?" half a year longer? years? does this mean we're not going to hear a thing about any of it come october's meeting? |
Bvos Member Username: Bvos
Post Number: 1786 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 134.215.223.211
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 1:37 pm: | |
The model is a highly complex and multifaceted thing. It involves both ridership numbers as well as economics. Each are dependent on each other. The model is more formulas and numbers rather than a visual thing. The consultants creading the model didn't get into too much detail. These sorts of things tend to be proprietary until they're sure all the bugs are worked out. Once all the bugs are worked out then they release it to the public. The consultant gets paid big bucks for this sort of thing so they don't want to release anything and be subject to critique until they're sure all the assumptions and their effects are working correctly. |
Jsmyers Member Username: Jsmyers
Post Number: 1812 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 209.131.7.68
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 1:51 pm: | |
quote:If somebody doesn't believe that grant proposals and "studies" don't put $$$ into profs pockets, well, that person should buy one of the bridges I'm unloading, cheap.
That is one of the dumbest things you've ever wrote. These kinds of studies have nothing to do with academia. In fact, it is unfortunate, but I doubt that the UofM Trasnportation Planning faculty are very aware that the study is even happening. (I wouldn't know a thing about other universities.) The study is being done by Parsons Brinckerhoff, a multinational company, and the SEMCOG staff, an opt-in associations of governments. http://www.pbworld.com/ You are entitled to your opinion that the study is a waste of time and money. You might even believe it is political pork/kickback to PB. You are also entitled to your opinion that university professors don't provide a useful research function in our society. But you cannot make incorrect factual claims about something you know nothing about. I know of no case when a draft environmental impact statement and/or analysis of alternatives for a public works project was done by an academic. This certainly is not the case here. If a professor is doing or helping with a plan, it is either: 1. Part of a student project primarily for educational purposes. 2. Funded by a non-profit group and done largely as pro-bono work to stay sharp and/or help a community or group. or 3. It may actually be a study, and not a plan, in which case it is the profs attempt to write a research paper that will be published and expand the base of knowledge about or world. As for the model not working... I would bet that they have some kind of check and balance system (maybe two models) that is not agreeing, telling them that they are missing something, and in order to get data and projections that they can stand behind, they need to tweak things more. Kinda like when you paint your blue house red and you realize that it looks purple, you decide you have to add one more coat of paint. |
Bibs Member Username: Bibs
Post Number: 540 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 198.208.159.18
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 1:55 pm: | |
Did Henry Ford do a feasablity study for the first car he made? No! Just do it. I heard that the train to the Tiger games is sold out! Did they spend $500 grand on a study! |
Ndavies Member Username: Ndavies
Post Number: 2036 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 129.9.163.233
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 2:12 pm: | |
quote:Did Henry Ford do a feasablity study for the first car he made? No! Just do it. I heard that the train to the Tiger games is sold out! Did they spend $500 grand on a study!
What a stupid analogy. First this is not the 1890's, and due to Henry's lack of planning/feasibility studies his first car company went bankrupt. He just wanted to build race cars. The investors in his second car company pushed him out. The Ford Motor company was his third attempt at car manufacturing. Maybe his first company would have been a success if he had planned better at the beginning. |
Itsjeff
Member Username: Itsjeff
Post Number: 6545 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 208.27.111.125
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 2:24 pm: | |
I understand that the second company Ford began went on to become the Cadillac Motor division of General Motors. |
Ndavies Member Username: Ndavies
Post Number: 2037 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 129.9.163.105
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 2:27 pm: | |
Yes Itsjeff, that's true. |
Detroitplanner Member Username: Detroitplanner
Post Number: 85 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 63.85.13.248
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 2:45 pm: | |
the Tiger Train runs on an existing amtrak schedule. Amtrak does not get much ridership along Woodward. This is simply a win-win marketing promotion for both Amtrak and the Tigers. There is no additional public investment with the Tiger Train. Studies are needed to gather public input on projects that are going to cost the taxpayers money. The Detroit to AA route as seen as the first of a multi-billion dollar upgrade planned for the Metro by SEMCOG. Would you want the govt spending billions without a study?? |
Thecarl
Member Username: Thecarl
Post Number: 902 Registered: 04-2005 Posted From: 69.14.30.175
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 6:53 pm: | |
bvos and wsukid, thanks for your input. really, there's only one thing that matters here: funding. currently, we have detroit public schools, and detroit itself, along with saginaw, flint, and other communities, in desperate need of funding. even "healthy" communities are feeling the pinch from decreased revenue sharing from the state. manufacturing jobs are leaving the state every day, and those that remain are poised to have their wages slashed by half, a la delphi. homes are flooding the market as people leave, are laid off, or lose their houses to foreclosure. a heavy real estate supply-side causes property values to drop and property tax revenues to fall short of projections. and, feelings of loyalty among our youngest and brightest has ebbed, as college grads, in great numbers, are staking their futures elsewhere. fuel prices and instability in the middle east, product pipelines from the domestic automakers, aging infrastructure and legacy costs, emergence of the service economy over manufacturing; the list just goes on and on. i just don't see where the money is going come from, as so many public and private enterprises are looking at credit ratings that have sunk, or are on their way to, junk status. many of these entities have a long way to go just to get back to zero. right now, there's little or no tolerance for risk when it comes to backing a major project. that's the undeniable truth that the planners have to deal with. purse strings are just too tight right now, and will remain that way until the bleeding stops. i can write this up as a formal statement; fluff it up with big words, notations, journalistic and academic references, and prepare a slick power-point presentation for the low, low price of $116,000. (edited to correct instance of "to" to "too") (Message edited by thecarl on August 04, 2006) |
Cabasse Member Username: Cabasse
Post Number: 11 Registered: 01-2006 Posted From: 68.42.169.74
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 7:12 pm: | |
chicken, egg, which comes first? detroit remains the last city of this size without any rail transit. without it, it's one less [MAJOR] selling point on bringing new jobs here. federal grants are there to help out. take a look at the stats on apta's website - more people ride the bus in this city then all of those startup lines we hear everyone praising so much in dallas, houston, minneapolis. i do realize i'm preaching to the choir here, for the most part. i hail from atlanta, a grossly overrated city that's booming like few others in the country. its transit system, marta, which sees over 250k passengers on bus and rail each (over half a mil a day) made its first profit of 18 million last year. i've lived up here for a little over a year now, but in that short period of time, with all the exploring i've done - i honestly have to say detroit has so much more going for it. (and i still love my hometown) the time is now, with gas prices going nowhere but up. |
Andylinn Member Username: Andylinn
Post Number: 181 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 68.40.195.233
| Posted on Friday, August 04, 2006 - 10:46 pm: | |
this has been said a million times. we NEED transit. we've been working with the same model in detroit for the past 50 years, and it is failing. something needs to change. we will continue to slip and slide into further decay unless we change and stop wallowing on our asses. we've been wallowing on our asses for years. "renaissance this" "renaissance that" when do we really change? seriously? when to we stop shunning our young people and start inviting them back with a sweet and vibrant downtown? it will start with transit. this is a choir preach, but i felt i needed to say it. let's wake up... -andy |
Dougw Member Username: Dougw
Post Number: 1268 Registered: 11-2003 Posted From: 68.73.205.173
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 12:26 am: | |
quote:right now, there's little or no tolerance for risk when it comes to backing a major project. that's the undeniable truth that the planners have to deal with. purse strings are just too tight right now, and will remain that way until the bleeding stops.
I half agree with your point here, given the current climate I do think that a big effort to bring rapid transit to the whole region at once would probably not pass, being too expensive (a billion+). But on the plus side, this particular study covers a smaller starter line which could make use of some existing infrastructure to keep costs down. Total costs might be in the ballpark of a few hundred million, with a significant part of that paid for by the feds. Hopefully it would have enough pieces (the AA/Airport/Detroit CRT line and a Woodward starter LRT line) to generate some success on its own, which could then expand to a larger effort. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 1209 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 12:57 am: | |
Just how many $ millions are you going to donate, Andy? Remember, $ talks and BS walks... Metro Detroit's manufacturing economy hasn't bottomed yet. The only jobs of any substance being created with rapid transit entering the picture would be those temporary jobs constructing it. Why should any incoming (from where???) businesses really concern themselves with transportation for their workers with the local unemployment figures being as high as they are? Dream on. |
Trainman Member Username: Trainman
Post Number: 172 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 64.12.116.204
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 9:46 am: | |
SMART does not count money from the sale of fuel to calculate the farebox to revenue anymore. This raises it from 12 percent to 25 percent. Most states no longer pay for public bus service and in those those states only local taxes collected pay. Michigan will soon join the states that no longer pay. Unless, YOU have the courage to vote NO next August 8, 2006 How many DY'ers have this courage to fight regressive taxes that will only enable more freeways and rails to be built without more jobs and industry support in Michigan?? I lost my bus service in Livonia because the state will not pay and I have filed an official compleint against MDOT. But, the Transportation Riders United still supports the SMART tax knowing very well that this is a tax shift that is hurting the poor, jobless and crippled and costing Michigan more jobs. Don't just vote NO but vote HELL NO And if this tax passees then good because you will all see the TRUth and see how much our state and industries really care in Michigan. The SMART renewal is a church charity on the property tax bill. So, I won't care if it passes. Anyone who owns property can afford to give a small charity. Even if they work for Wal-Mart. The SMART tax will not save or improve bus service. Unless, we take action and support my efforts and other ones to fill up the buses and get more industry supports. For my website, Just ask. |
Cabasse Member Username: Cabasse
Post Number: 12 Registered: 01-2006 Posted From: 68.42.169.74
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 10:57 am: | |
trainman, i bet you've sufficiently pissed off enough people here by telling them how to vote that everyone is now going to vote against you. livernois, you can't possibly deny the fact that public transit is one of the things companies of all types look at when deciding on a relocation, or a new regional office. more things like google? more development in techtown? even something like new students from out of state to our schools. (ok, the last one is a stretch) bottom line, it's one of the main things that could continue to help bring detroit out of its current rut. [and] that last comment of yours sounds like circular reasoning to me. "why would more jobs come with local unemployment so high?" um, to lower it perhaps? i'm sure i misread that, but i don't know how. (Message edited by cabasse on August 05, 2006) |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 1210 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 11:55 am: | |
Duh! What about prosperity in regions without public transportation most elsewhere in the US? Go back to the drawing board concerning this: It won't fly. Detroit had its days decades ago, and they won't return. Let go of that silly notion that Detroit will be resurrected as another "Phoenix" out of its ashes. It isn't going to happen due to the greedy, lazy collective mindset of its current inhabitants. In the meantime, try to be less anti-business and spend some 10-15 years to reeducate (w/o spending another $100K plus) its residents, and maybe something will come of it after a decade or two. There won't be any easy fixes--just long, hard work. That's why it won't happen. Detroiters won't put in the necessary effort; they haven't so far. |
Danindc Member Username: Danindc
Post Number: 1673 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 67.100.158.10
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 1:41 pm: | |
quote:Duh! What about prosperity in regions without public transportation most elsewhere in the US? Go back to the drawing board concerning this: It won't fly.
To which regions, exactly, are you referring? Most other large cities in the U.S. have built or are building rail transit systems. Contrary to what you might think, Detroit is the odd man out, especially for a region of its size. |
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard
Post Number: 1211 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 4:35 pm: | |
New and old urbanists seem to believe that businesses only gravitate to the large, often dysfunctional cities. Just look where Honda and Toyota settle? Just tell me about all those rapid/mass transit systems. But, please, spare me... (Message edited by LivernoisYard on August 05, 2006) |
Jams Member Username: Jams
Post Number: 3560 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 68.74.10.242
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 5:06 pm: | |
Greater Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce (How can you get any more pro-business?) supported the DARTA plan and currently have seven workgroups studying Tranportation needs of the region.
quote:The Transportation Action Council (TAC) will appoint seven Transportation Action Groups (TAG) organized around current key issues or gaps within the existing multimodal transportation system. TAGs will act as work groups formed to assess current problems and make recommendations for improvements. TAGs are also responsible for developing criteria to prioritize needs and to benchmark progress for achieving goals. TAGs will meet and study a specific gap or issue. After six months, TAGs will be required to report findings and recommendations to TAC. Transportation Action Groups: Border Crossing Highways & Roads Rail Passenger & Freight Air Passenger & Freight Port of Detroit Public Transit Intermodal
Obviously some businessmen feel this is something that affects our region and needs to be addressed. http://www.detroitchamber.com/ centrals/council.asp?id=139 |
Trufan Member Username: Trufan
Post Number: 12 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 69.212.63.211
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 6:35 pm: | |
Livernoisyard, where do you get your information? People, businesses, and commerce follow good quality of life. A major factor in quality of life is transportation options. As Danindc said, Detroit is the odd man out. Lets list some cities with rail transportation: Buffalo, NY Newark, NJ Dallas Houston Salt Lake City Sacramento San Diego Camden, NJ San Jose Portland Oregon Cleveland OH Pittsburgh, PA St. Louis Philadelphia NYC Boston Washington DC Atlanta Baltimore Tacoma, WA Seattle, WA Miami Minneapolis Denver Los Angeles San Francisco Chicago New Orleans cities currently constructing rail: Phoenix Charlotte, NC So where would you rather live, in any of the regions listed above, or rural Tennessee. And if you don't want to live somewhere, why would you want to work there. Check the recent article that says recent grads pick a location, and then find a job. Obviously Detroit is behind the times, and we are living with the affects now. Its time to start competing with the rest of the world, so we should all put our support behind the Ann Arbor Project, especially TRU’s suggested alternative. Also please vote for the SMART millage, while transit might not be improved by voting for the millage, SMART cannot operate without it and so thousands of people wouldn’t be able to get to work or anywhere. Obviously everyone already knows that Trainman is delusional, the state will not pick up the slack, nor does state law protect against loss of funding. If you don’t vote for the SMART millage there is not contingency plan for all the people that depend on it everyday. Now I understand that Trainman is upset about the loss of bus service in Livonia, but you can’t hold a grudge, you have to work on getting bus service back to Livonia. Convincing people the importance of the bus is the first priority in Livonia. Plus, if bus service matters to you, just move to almost anywhere else in the region where the people support transit. (Message edited by TRUfan on August 05, 2006) |
Cabasse Member Username: Cabasse
Post Number: 13 Registered: 01-2006 Posted From: 68.42.169.74
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 6:54 pm: | |
i'm friends with someone who works with semcog, and is also a member here - he says it's only a setback of a few months. i'm glad to hear it. seriously, the biggest city i can think of that has a relatively healthy economy, without any major transit, is tampa. it's half detroit's size, and i'm sure being in florida has quite a bit to do with its current economic status. (and even then, they recently opened a 2.5 mile trolley line down there) |
Trufan Member Username: Trufan
Post Number: 13 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 69.212.63.211
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 7:00 pm: | |
Cabasse, in fact Tampa has a streetcar line from the waterfront to the YBOR district, which is a booming section of downtown Tampa. So in fact, we are even behind tampa. |
Cabasse Member Username: Cabasse
Post Number: 14 Registered: 01-2006 Posted From: 68.42.169.74
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 7:08 pm: | |
yeah - i mentioned it - but it's not quite yet what i'd call major transit; it's the same length as the people mover loop and i wouldn't be suprised if the people mover actually has higher ridership. (Message edited by cabasse on August 05, 2006) and another edit: yeah, i just checked apta's website and i was even more shocked to find that there are almost 10k passengers a day on the dpm! that's over a third what pittsburgh sees on their entire light rail system. (and 9 times tampa's trolley ridership) transit won't work here... hahaha (Message edited by cabasse on August 05, 2006) |
Trainman Member Username: Trainman
Post Number: 178 Registered: 04-2006 Posted From: 152.163.100.8
| Posted on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 9:44 pm: | |
The statistics on the Federal Transit Database shows that we have the highest per passenger cost for mass transit and we have among the highest taxes. Businesses are leaving Michigan because of high taxes and the high cost of public bus service. So, lets build more freeways and abolish state transit funds. I'm not tying to piss off anyone one and I'm sure the SMART tax will pass anyway but if we all don't do more to get the mass transit leadership we need then more jobs will leave our state. Or, maybe I'm wrong??? Maybe we don't need qualiy cost effective public transportation? |
Bvos Member Username: Bvos
Post Number: 1793 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 134.215.223.211
| Posted on Tuesday, August 08, 2006 - 1:13 pm: | |
Just received an update today from SEMCOG on the study. It is indeed the travel forecast model (the part that projects future ridership) that is the hang-up right now. The reasons given for the technical problems with the model is that the model being used here is new and there is little viable mass transit currently in use so it is very difficult to calculate numbers when there is little to base your numbers off of, especially since there is no mass transit of any sort between AA and Detroit currently (Amtrack does not count as mass transit since it's not designed for commuter service). |
Itsjeff
Member Username: Itsjeff
Post Number: 6559 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 208.27.111.125
| Posted on Tuesday, August 08, 2006 - 1:25 pm: | |
Perhaps if they'd sunk a little more money in to the study, we'd have a solid report by now... |
Bvos Member Username: Bvos
Post Number: 1838 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 134.215.223.211
| Posted on Wednesday, August 16, 2006 - 10:14 am: | |
No new information really (despite Keith Schneider's claims) but a good article on the AA to Det Study none the less: http://www.metrotimes.com/edit orial/story.asp?id=9543 |