  Rugbyman Member Username: Rugbyman Post Number: 51 Registered: 06-2005 Posted From: 68.40.11.177 |
MI-09 isn't in Detroit or even Wayne county, but Joe Knollenberg is Michigan's ranking Republican. Since the Presidency is still held by the Republicans, he's the one Bush and the party comes to for appointment recommendations for everything from spots on the bench down to admission to the military colleges. He is also chairman of the House Transportation committee. Let's be honest, what happens to his seat this cycle is of great importance to everyone in the metro area. The OC has been regarded an inpenetrable Republican stronghold by many in the area, but the numbers have been quietly telling a different story of late. Granholm and Stabenow won the district in '02 and Kerry got 49% of the vote in '04. Those aren't results that scream impossible for Democratic challengers. Given that Joe has at least two scandals hanging over his head, including the $8.3 million earmark for his second largest donor, and the fact that he's forced to have a Primary this year while the Dems will not, I think Democrat Nancy Skinner has a damn good shot at taking him out this time around. I think the latest poll has only 43% of voters in the district planning on voting for Knollenberg against an unnamed Dem. To give a little perspective, anything less than 60% for an incumbent at this stage in the game is a HUGE redflag to the national parties. He's voted lockstep with Tom DeLay for years, and I think the old 'It's the economy, stupid' is going to really come back into play this time around. I get the feeling that the fiscal conservatives are finally sick of the deficits. Regardless, look for piles of money to be spent this cycle by both parties. Discuss. | ||
Lowell Board Administrator Username: Lowell Post Number: 2713 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 66.167.210.44 |
Oakland County is fully in play. 2004 was a watershed in many ways. 4 county commission seats flipped red to blue. While Kerry got 49% of the vote, he had a very slim plurality over Bush, under 3K votes, but a big surprise. A race that I was involved with, Aldo Vagnozzi state rep for Farmington/FHills, saw his victory margin increase from 1500 to 6000+. OC Dems are emboldened. Even LBP is in their sites now. Knollenberg, who has been on auto pilot for years, is clearly vulnerable to a challenge by an energetic female candidate. It will be an interesting race. | ||
Warriorfan Member Username: Warriorfan Post Number: 405 Registered: 08-2005 Posted From: 68.43.81.191 |
He's an incumbent in the House of Representatives, unless he molests a child on live television I would say his seat is fairly safe. Detroit isn't the only place where people vote based on name recognition alone, that's pretty much how the entire country operates. That's why out of the 435 House races this November, only about 30 of them will actually be competitive. This is not one of them. | ||
Mjb3 Member Username: Mjb3 Post Number: 98 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 24.145.154.7 |
Mich. Right to Life is still the big player. Primary candidate will get slammed. Bush will hurt Joe, but right to life is real strong in the district. Might be 55-45 or even 52-48, but imcumbent keeps seat. | ||
Rugbyman Member Username: Rugbyman Post Number: 52 Registered: 06-2005 Posted From: 68.40.11.177 |
That same poll I referenced earlier showed that over 30% of voters said that the economy was their primary concern. I don't think anyone is going to argue that the economy is exactly going off like gangbangers. People out here vote with their wallets more than anything and those wallets are hurting between high gas prices and perpetual corporate downsizing. I really think that Joe's going to get it handed to him this time around. I mean, the numbers are showing that it's not even a sure thing for him to get out of the primary. | ||
Irish_mafia Member Username: Irish_mafia Post Number: 542 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 75.9.255.242 |
When it comes to the economy, people vote Republican when looking for positive change. Expect the local economy in MI to drive out the likes of Granholm. Knollenberg will still be in place when she is off trying to get a high paying consultant position. | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1002 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.221.71.17 |
Irish Mafia says: "When it comes to the economy, people vote Republican when looking for positive change." Hahahahahahaha! Thank you for the most politically obtuse posting of the day. Knollenberg will probably be taken out by the pro-choice, pro-conservation, untainted, moderate Republican female who's taking him on. I think Skinner would have a better chance against the old guy himself, though. Huge contrast between the old guard pol protecting his rich businessman friends, and the newbie, moderate Republican whose views more accurately reflect Oakland County. OC is not Grand Rapids, and Knollenberg's regressive, right wing schtick embarrasses the well-heeled, socially progressive, fiscally conservative OC types. | ||
Rjk Member Username: Rjk Post Number: 353 Registered: 11-2003 Posted From: 68.41.145.5 |
".....and the fact that he's forced to have a Primary this year while the Dems will not, I think Democrat Nancy Skinner has a damn good shot at taking him out this time around." Lol, let me get this straight. The Democrats will not have a primary because Nancy Skinner is such a powerhouse candidate that no one wants to run against her in a primary? How about this? The Democrats are throwing out Nancy Skinner (If that's the case) because they know Knollenberg is safe as he can be. | ||
Cris Member Username: Cris Post Number: 422 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 71.227.30.129 |
I don't think so, Irish Mafia. I think people in MI see the economy as part of a national crisis as opposed to a statewide crisis, and Republicans are seen as the root of the national economic woes. As the saying goes when it comes to the economy-- when America catches a cold, Michigan gets pneumonia. | ||
Oldredfordette Member Username: Oldredfordette Post Number: 922 Registered: 02-2004 Posted From: 68.60.177.56 |
Nancy Skinner for Congress http://www.nancyskinner.campai gnoffice.com/ | ||
Irish_mafia Member Username: Irish_mafia Post Number: 543 Registered: 10-2003 Posted From: 75.9.255.242 |
Not really Cris The American economy is going gangbusters with huge growth. People in MI see the economy for what it is a combination of the death of the Big Three/ UAW arangement as that industry reinvents iteself with less staff and a State that has not reacted appropriately to the threat. People see a Governor that has been beholden to the constiuencies that have further driven down the economy and unable to properly address issues as basic as the SBT. | ||
Oldredfordette Member Username: Oldredfordette Post Number: 923 Registered: 02-2004 Posted From: 68.60.177.56 |
Pay no attention to what you can see, Cris. Everything is fine! | ||
Jenniferl Member Username: Jenniferl Post Number: 283 Registered: 03-2004 Posted From: 4.229.42.107 |
I think Knollenberg is vulnerable mainly because of redistricting. Sander Levin was gerrymandered eastward and Knollenberg swallowed up most of Royal Oak, Berkley, and Huntington Woods, which are more a lot more progressive than the wealthier burbs to the north. | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1003 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.221.71.17 |
You're right that he's worse off, Jennifer, but even the "more conservative" 'burbs of Troy and Birmingham I think would have had enough of his ass after the way he's voted on things this past year. He's for the corporate control of the Internet -- big surprise! Are any of these corporations in his district? Of course not. | ||
Gistok Member Username: Gistok Post Number: 2322 Registered: 08-2004 Posted From: 4.229.105.168 |
Joe Knollenberg is Chairman of the House Transportation Committee?..... And his job might be at stake? Oh please don't anyone tell Trainman that....... | ||
Treelock Member Username: Treelock Post Number: 131 Registered: 03-2005 Posted From: 24.192.27.161 |
Several inaccuracies I'd like to clear up here. First, Joe Knollenberg doesn't chair the House Transportation Committee. He chairs an Appropriations subcommittee on transportation and HUD (they're wrapped together as one, for whatever reason). Secondly, I'm not sure what you mean by "Michigan's ranking Republican." Do you mean longest-serving? He's in his 14th year, and I'm not entirely sure, but Michigan is known for having a very senior congressional delegation, both in terms of ages and number of years serving. I'm not certain JK is the longest serving. I'd check Vern Ehlers from Grand Rapids and maybe Pete Hoekstra from Holland. I've not heard that Knollenberg is the longest-serving rep in Michigan. Third: As for him being this font of influence for W's judicial appointments and what not, that's the first I've ever heard of that. Where is this coming from? Four, Stabenow wasn't on the ballot in 2002. She won her first Senate term in 2000 over incumbent Spence Abraham. Although it's true Granholm did win the district that year. And regarding the Right To Life comment someone made, I have heard the district is actually pro choice. It can't be that pro-life if it elected Granholm. All that said, this isn't the first year Dems have targeted Knollenberg as vulnerable. It's worth pointing out that he routinely wins re-election handily and has access to boatloads of loot. Whether or not the voting public has paid close enough attention to his voting record, penchant for earmarks and scandals, we'll see. I do agree that Nancy Skinner represents an attractive candidate for the Democrats, however. She's a woman, which even she will tell you is a huge asset, she's attractive (sorry, but it can only help), has at least some name ID and is a very good communicator. | ||
Treelock Member Username: Treelock Post Number: 132 Registered: 03-2005 Posted From: 24.192.27.161 |
OK I checked it, and Knollenberg has been in the House longer than Vern Ehlers, exactly as long as Hoekstra, but not as long as Republican Dave Camp of Midland. He was first elected in 1990. | ||
E_hemingway Member Username: E_hemingway Post Number: 765 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.242.215.8 |
Knollenberg is facing the stiffest challenge since his initial election. First, he is being challenged by a real politician, former state Rep. Patricia "Pan" Godchaux. She has raised a significant amount of money so far, $159,000 as of April, according to www.opensecrets.org. She is savy, considered a moderate republican and a real threat to Knollenberg. Her web site is www.electgodchaux.com. Nancy Skinner is also a real threat to Knollenberg. She has raised $103,000 as of April and has received some contributions from some heavy hitting Democratic donors who don't give money willy nilly. If her campaign gains momentum, expect those donors and many more to start dumping a lot of money into her coffers. She has a face for politics, has experience being a public persona and ran a campaign for senate in Illinois in 04. Skinner has potential and wouldn't come back home, native of Royal Oak, if she didn't think she had a real shot at winning office. She will be a force to be reckoned with no matter who wins the GOP primary. Her web site is www.nancyskinner.campaignoffic e.com. Knollenberg has raised $1.2 million so far, which is the normal amount for an incumbent. He's well entrenched in his district, a savy and connected politician and most importantly he's been winning for a long time. Knocking off Knollenberg will be no easy task. His web site is www.joeknollenberg.us. However, the stars could be lining up for such an upset. The national mood is decidely unfriendly toward Republicans so far this year. The state of the local economy will also be a drag on incumbents. A primary challenge by a real contender will drain resources from both GOP candidates, while Skinner will be able to manuever and raise money at will for the general election. Also, the demographics of Oakland County are changing. As Detroit continues to empty out, more and more of its Democratic-voting consituents are moving into Oakland County. Also, many former Oakland County residents, the ones that made it so solidly Republican for so long, are moving out to Livingston County or the rural fringe of Oakland County. This could all spell trouble for Knollenberg, but it would take an awful lot to throw him out of office. | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 882 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42 |
Perhaps the new arrivals came to Oakland County from Detroit, in part, in order to escape the clutches of their former Congressmen(women). In addition, there will be some interesting gerrymandering after the next census when Detroit becomes more minimized politically. | ||
Oldredfordette Member Username: Oldredfordette Post Number: 928 Registered: 02-2004 Posted From: 68.60.177.56 |
People don't leave Detroit because of their elected representatives unless they're insane. | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 883 Registered: 10-2004 Posted From: 69.242.223.42 |
ORF doesn't get "tongue-in-cheek," or is it "tongue-in-Cheeks?" | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 2342 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 63.149.5.130 |
Good riddance to Knollenberg...I have met his son (who happens to be gay) and Knollenberg does all he can to set back gays. His district is becoming more moderate and old tired smear the queer, and rally around the flag campaigns to support Bush are wearing off on people. Better off w/o him. | ||
Rugbyman Member Username: Rugbyman Post Number: 53 Registered: 06-2005 Posted From: 68.40.11.177 |
PaPa- On the surface it looks like Pan has a lot in the coffers, but keep in mind that $100,000 of that was her own money. She is definitely going to have to be reckoned with, but I think the numbers are showing that she's unlikely to beat Knollenberg in the primary. I mean, he can drop a half a million on the primary and just swamp her. When he spends that kind of money on just defending his own seat to make it to the general election it's going to level the playing field significantly for Skinner in terms of money raised. Speaking of money raised- I found out that Skinner is a finalist for the DFA Grassroots All-Star Contest: http://tools.democracyforameri ca.com/housevote/ Apparently, if she wins this, she'll get a fundraising email sent out on her behalf to all 500,000 subscribers to the DFA newsletter. Figure a .5% donation rate at an average of only $20 per donation and that's $50,000 in the bank over and above the $2,000 she got just for making it to the finals. Fifty dollars puts the figure at $125,000. Welcome to the wonderful world of internet fundraising. Given that she placed second in the first round of polling, I'd say she has a great shot. It's true that Knollenberg has pretty comfortably won re-election over the past few years. David Fink spent something like $2 million in '02 and lost, but Bush had an approval rating of somewhere in the neighborhood of 75% to 80%. It's south of 30% now and Congress' is even lower. Not a recipe for guaranteed success. | ||
E_hemingway Member Username: E_hemingway Post Number: 769 Registered: 11-2004 Posted From: 69.242.215.8 |
It's fair to say that Knollenberg is vulnerable. He may even be the most vulnerable congressional incumbent in the state. However, his seat is not a top takeover opportunity for Democrats. It could become a real possibility if the national political environment continues to sour for Republicans and Pan puts up a real fight. That $100,000 is a good indicator that she plans to and conventional wisdom (for now) says the national mood will not change much before election day. Then again, that's a long ways off right now. | ||
Ilovedetroit Member Username: Ilovedetroit Post Number: 2343 Registered: 02-2005 Posted From: 63.149.5.130 |
I saw in the paper this weekend that Bush's approval ratings have only gone up to 37% (about 3% since Zarqawi's capture)...other than finding Bin Laden I don't think much can happen to make those numbers go up...even my Bush loving parents are tired of the cost and the death. | ||
Ray Member Username: Ray Post Number: 711 Registered: 06-2004 Posted From: 68.42.133.85 |
Dumping Joe Knollenberg would be idiotic for Oakland county. You would replace a senior Congressman chairng an important appropriations subcommittee with a freshman who would be at odds with the Republican power structure. In terms of dollars to Michigan -- especially transportation dollars -- we would get killed. This is not the year for ailing Michigan or Oakland county to shed an important political asset. I accept that you all hate George Bush, but shooting yourself in the ass is not the way to get back at him. | ||
Ron Member Username: Ron Post Number: 179 Registered: 03-2006 Posted From: 66.174.93.105 |
Ray, you are assuming the GOP will maintain control of the House. If the Dems take control, this "asset" of JK would be lost. I can dream, can't I? | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1013 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.221.71.17 |
Enjoy that "Republican power structure" while you can, Ray ... | ||
Ray Member Username: Ray Post Number: 713 Registered: 06-2004 Posted From: 68.42.133.85 |
It may be gone in 2008, but it won't be gone this Fall. | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1014 Registered: 12-2003 Posted From: 69.221.71.17 |
They can kiss the House goodbye. If they're lucky enough to hold the Senate, then they have that and a lame duck, wildly unpopular president until 2008. Some "power structure." | ||
Ray Member Username: Ray Post Number: 715 Registered: 06-2004 Posted From: 68.42.133.85 |
Hmmm.. surely a man so confident in the outcome of the election would be willing to place a small wager between gentlemen. | ||
Rugbyman Member Username: Rugbyman Post Number: 54 Registered: 06-2005 Posted From: 68.40.11.177 |
bump, because Skinner is in first for the DFA Grassroots All-Star Contest at www.democracyforamerica.com/ho usevote/ Today's the last day of the run-off vote. |
