  Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1581 Registered: 03-2008 |
I apologize if this has been posted before. I remembered we have talked a little about the future vacancy rates. A couple people were insisting I was wrong. A few others accused me of contradicting myself (a semi truth, but I would say that I simply changed my views after a few people schooled me outside of the forums, based on my forum optimism). Anyway, this one is from Grubb & Ellis... and I can't remember if we discussed it. Sorry again, if it has already been posted. As reported by Financial Week; Excerpt: "Detroit has been hit hardest, with a whopping 22.6% office vacancy rate. Conversely, New York City had the lowest vacancy rate among major U.S. cities, at 5.6%." Link: http://www.financialweek.com/a pps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/2008 0721/REG/309948199 Edit: Grammar (Message edited by Sean_of_Detroit on August 22, 2008) | ||
Wally Member Username: Wally Post Number: 526 Registered: 12-2003 |
The company I work for is leaving downtown Detroit and heading to Oakland County as I type this. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1151 Registered: 11-2003 |
Why do you figure they are, Wally? SoD - Good and bad news. If you need space, keep your options open and negotiate hard. | ||
Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1582 Registered: 03-2008 |
Here's more from Grubb and Ellis; Link: http://www.grubb-ellis.com/pdf /metro_off_mkttrnd/Detroit.pdf | ||
Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1583 Registered: 03-2008 |
Yeah, depends who you are, doesn't it? I probably should be posting this in Open City. I still have yet to figure those group things out. It wont even let me look at the agenda. | ||
Brandon48202 Member Username: Brandon48202 Post Number: 232 Registered: 12-2004 |
Office vacancy rates don't even include buildings like the David Whitney or Broderick tower. The actual vacancy rate for downtown buildings is really much higher than this data suggests. | ||
Craig Member Username: Craig Post Number: 987 Registered: 02-2007 |
Is anyone surprised by the trend in metro vacancies? Big Three share of the domestic market has tanked hard (today Ford's share resembles Chrysler's just ten years ago). Auto share dips --> industry shrinks --> offices are not needed --> offices close --> vacancies rise. Bottom line: we're over-built for the size of our remaining core industry. | ||
Wally Member Username: Wally Post Number: 527 Registered: 12-2003 |
Our offices are being consolidated to one in the 'burbs. | ||
Wilus1mj Member Username: Wilus1mj Post Number: 277 Registered: 05-2005 |
It's obvious, Auburn Hills/Novi/Farmington Hills/Troy have cheap land and low taxes. Why pay more to renovate old buildings in Detroit/Southfield/Highland Park?? The state needs to do more to help older office buildings/space. | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 199 Registered: 07-2008 |
"Detroit has been hit hardest, with a whopping 22.6% office vacancy rate. Conversely, New York City had the lowest vacancy rate among major U.S. cities, at 5.6%." Um....when a company leaves the city and moves to the 'burbs, I don't think that affects these stats. Usually these stats are based on Metropolitan Area, not city limits. That means that it's not enough for us to "fix" the problems in the city limits. We have to think "regionally" to draw businesses back to Michigan. I could be wrong on the metro area bit. Someone tell me if that's so. YPD | ||
Brandon48202 Member Username: Brandon48202 Post Number: 234 Registered: 12-2004 |
Office vacancy rates are broken down into submarket (downtown, I-75 cooridoor, Southfield, Etc.) | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 201 Registered: 07-2008 |
Right, but in the context of this article? Usually when I see an article comparing real estate in various parts of the country, they're not making those submarket distinctions. YPD | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 691 Registered: 07-2007 |
"It's obvious, Auburn Hills/Novi/Farmington Hills/Troy have cheap land and low taxes. Why pay more to renovate old buildings in Detroit/Southfield/Highland Park?? The state needs to do more to help older office buildings/space." Actually, that's not the case. Land in places like Novi is not cheap. It's pretty expensive. Tax rates are fairly low but high property values + lower tax rates = higher than expected property taxes for some businesses. Someone else pointed this out on another thread comparing the taxes on property in Detroit versus the 'burbs. The bigger problem for office rental in the city is that the age and design of the existing office space is obsolete when compared to what modern companies want and need. | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 203 Registered: 07-2008 |
Hey y'all...I think that this discussion about Detroit/Southfield vs. Novi/Farmington Hills is interesting and necessary. But until someone corrects me, I'm going to assume that a national publication comparing Detroit and NYC vacancy rates is prolly talking about the Metro area. Which means what need to be talking about is how to attract businesses into the region. Not just how to fix the eloquently stated complexities of reviving commercial real estate in the city limits. Is it possible that vacancy rates are at 20%+ region-wide? That seems high...maybe they are just talking about the city. But either way, we should be sure what we're talking about. Right now it's still vague. YPD | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4924 Registered: 06-2004 |
It doesn't seem high if you drive around and see all the For Lease and For Sale signs. What amazed me, driving out Northwestern the other day, were all those signs on older, established space just down the street from builds in progress. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1153 Registered: 11-2003 |
I think it is a simple problem. Mix the decline of the US Auto industry (to be unrecognizable in five years from what it was five years ago) and the continued building of new property on the outskirts, and supply is outstripping demand. No longer is Big Beaver as fashionable - it's M-59. When I go to parties and networking events out in Troy and everyone's talking about how fashionable it is to be north of Big Beaver - or I see Auburn Hills and Rochester building new developments like crazy - it's cannibalism. We've simply built too much, and continue to, especially with no investment. And few give two rats tails about what's left behind because it's not perceived as their problem anymore. Now, stopping it is a problem with no regional government. But there's your cause, and I think we're outstripping supply as a region so much so that no amount of infusion is going to fill it in the forseeable future. Our hyper-sprawl with no limiting factors (like other large municipalities to run into and few physical limitations as well as being a super-car culture) is continuing almost unchecked. One can argue about sprawl and if it's good or not; but it's simple math when you're adding more capacity while you're losing demand when it comes to vacancy. I wouldn't be surprised to 30% soon at this pace. As much as I want regionalism, the economic reality is that every municipality has to look out for itself. Part of why I wholeheartedly support Detroit building their own transit line down Woodward; it needs to create it's own advantages. Nobody is going to help it. No amount of young professionals are going to fix a fundamentally flawed cultural problem (not policy - the policy comes from the culture). The young professionals may give municipalities or neighborhoods specific advantages, sure - but it's a dog eat dog, dirty fight as much as we like to preach platitudes in here. (Message edited by digitalvision on August 22, 2008) | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 204 Registered: 07-2008 |
"As much as I want regionalism, the economic reality is that every municipality has to look out for itself." Why don't municipalities realize that in doing so, they're shrinking the pie? I agree that yuppies aren't gonna save the region. And even moreso, DV, I am right with you when you talk about a flawed cultural problem. What frustrates me is that no one is talking about the cultural problem, everyone focuses on policy problems. In one stroke, I feel like the problem in SE Michigan is that it wants to play a new game using old rules. Or maybe, even worse, people are playing a new game and still thinking they're playing the old game. YPD p.s. This is the source of my disappointment in how much we are driving away the young professionals. More than any other group, they don't have long-held accumulations of power or political stakes in the ground. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1154 Registered: 11-2003 |
Unfortunately who's the politician that was the best at mobilizing the under 30 crowd, greater than any before, so much so the national party was looking at his strategy? Kwame Kilpatrick. Ooops. The reason we don't talk about is because it's political suicide, YPD, and immensely unpopular. It forces conversations on race and fears, it forces conversation on motivations and how people make money; it forces acknowledgment of mistakes (also difficult). A lot of people have worked hard for this culture; this culture is their dream. Millions in this region have worked their whole life for this culture as the goal of spending those late hours. Young professionals and urbanists usually are perceived by the majority (sometimes due to their approach) as coming in and pissing on those accomplishments and dreams. | ||
Iheartthed Member Username: Iheartthed Post Number: 3425 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote: I wholeheartedly agree. Detroit won't survive by trying to replicate the suburbs. | ||
Detroitnerd Member Username: Detroitnerd Post Number: 3043 Registered: 07-2004 |
And a transit line could, in the future, give Detroit a "dowry" to bring to a potential annexation or regional government. Of course, that's way down the road. | ||
Pffft Member Username: Pffft Post Number: 1681 Registered: 12-2003 |
Now they need to close the tax loophole that allows for overbuilding of office space in the suburbs in the first place... | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1156 Registered: 11-2003 |
Which loophole, Pffft? Do you have something that's citeable so that one could take it to a legislator? | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 205 Registered: 07-2008 |
"The reason we don't talk about is because it's political suicide, YPD, and immensely unpopular. It forces conversations on race and fears, it forces conversation on motivations and how people make money; it forces acknowledgment of mistakes (also difficult)." I think you're right. You seem very insightful about some the issues in the city and the region. If you're up for lunch, I'm buying. I'd like to pick your brain...you've been here a long time, and there's a lot I want to understand. YPD | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 693 Registered: 07-2007 |
We're never going to have regional government in SE Michigan. But we might get something that works to control sprawl, regional tax-base sharing. They do it in the Minneapolis, MN area. Local governments share a portion of taxes that come from new commercial development in the region. The pot of shared revenue gets dolled out based on a formula that favors less well-off communities. Because all communities benefit from new commercial development, there's less of an incentive for smaller or more rural communities to chase massive new development. There's also been a reduction in the disparity between local governments because older communities that no longer have room to grow don't have to ratchet up their taxes again and again as property values decline. The wealthy suburbs are still wealthy but the less well-off aren't the drain on the region as has happened here in SE Michigan. It could happen here but if it's going to happen, it's going to require a lot more focus on how to help the region versus how to help our own community. http://www.umich.edu/~econdev/ fiscaldisparityplan/index.html | ||
Youngprofessionaldetroiter Member Username: Youngprofessionaldetroiter Post Number: 206 Registered: 07-2008 |
Novine...now we're talking. Does this thing have political momentum? Interest? YPD | ||
Detroitplanner Member Username: Detroitplanner Post Number: 1832 Registered: 04-2006 |
This is not an us vs them sort of thing. If you drive around suburban areas you will see a ton of vacancy as well. Everyone in the Lake Erie basin in in the same boat. | ||
Lefty2 Member Username: Lefty2 Post Number: 1774 Registered: 07-2007 |
The trend for more people to work out of their homes will rise and there will be even higher vacancies. Telecommute is the worn out buzzword. Sprawl will continue and the government can't stop it. | ||
Ggores Member Username: Ggores Post Number: 309 Registered: 10-2007 |
"The trend for more people to work out of their homes will rise" Wow, that was like a flashback to 1998. We'd all be sittin' in our little rooms, wearing shorts and sandals, sipping mocha's, accessing the Company network and watching the bucks roll in! I think that the younger's (the under-30's I mean) maybe missed some lessons learned from the dot-com bust. Not saying under 30's are underrated, but to be of the video game arcade generation, to see the first home PC's, and to see Al Gore invent the internet, etc, etc.... Well, if nothing else, these are interesting times for sure. The Company I work for is relocating to Lyon Twp., and Bossman met Granholm last week, along with about a few other expanding company's, in Lansing. We are going to create jobs, and in return, are State tax incentives - yet "incentive" still depends on our ability to remain profitable. I'm usually quite negative about the regional economy, absolutely. And I'm not such a big fan of Granholm, and I've really been offended by michigan.gov's website, but, I dunno, the article I am linking to is a small slice of what I think is how Government, private industry, and regular old shmo's like me, can work in unison to create a positive atmosphere. And I gotta split: http://www.michigan.gov/gov/0, 1607,7-168-23442-198509--,00.h tml | ||
French777 Member Username: French777 Post Number: 536 Registered: 10-2006 |
I think Rochester / Rochester Hills has the Lowest Vacancy Rate in the Metro Area | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 694 Registered: 07-2007 |
"Novine...now we're talking. Does this thing have political momentum? Interest?" In Minneapolis it does. In SE Michigan? It's not even on most people's radar. There's still too much of an attitude of "keep your hands off my tax dollars" to get this off the ground yet. I think a proposal like this is going to need an advocate outside of the usual powers-that-be to get off the ground. It definitely can't come from within Detroit. I have zero expectation that a L. Brooks Patterson would lead with this from Oakland County. That leaves it up to some good government or regional level group or leader to push this. SEMCOG? It's all local elected officials so I doubt it. Who else can lead regionally? I used to think that someone like Doug Rothwell at Detroit Renaissance (or Paul Hillegonds before him) was best positioned to push ideas like this due to their Republican and business background and the fact that they weren't stuck on all of the historical grievances. But neither Paul or Doug seems to have been able/willing to lead in that way. From what DR posts about this seems right up their alley: http://www.detroitrenaissance. com/blog | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 695 Registered: 07-2007 |
If you want to read some more in-depth analysis of tax sharing and related issues: http://www.gvmc.org/landuse/do cuments/tax_base_sharing.pdf http://www.michiganlanduse.org /resources/councilresources/De ptofTreasury.pdf | ||
Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1586 Registered: 03-2008 |
Quote: "A lot of people have worked hard for this culture; this culture is their dream. Millions in this region have worked their whole life for this culture as the goal of spending those late hours. Young professionals and urbanists usually are perceived by the majority (sometimes due to their approach) as coming in and pissing on those accomplishments and dreams." All to true! It is suicide to talk about these things, but maybe what we need is to find someone willing to jump? Who's up for dancing on the ledge? LOL?  If you could figure out how it would help, I'm sure someone would do it... (Not me, I'm still on the basement stairs, and half the people reading, probably don't even know what I'm talking about). | ||
Lilpup Member Username: Lilpup Post Number: 4931 Registered: 06-2004 |
"I think Rochester / Rochester Hills has the Lowest Vacancy Rate in the Metro Area" They really haven't had a building boom to the same extent other communities have. | ||
W_chicago Member Username: W_chicago Post Number: 49 Registered: 01-2008 |
In 20 years, you'll drive from Southern Oakland County to Auburn Hills and see miles and miles and miles of empty suburban office buildings, surrounded by acres of crumbling parking lots, strip malls and dilapidated suburban housing and apartment complexes. | ||
W_chicago Member Username: W_chicago Post Number: 50 Registered: 01-2008 |
Whenever i take that I-75 route, I look at the endless office buildings and think: where is the city???? Oh yeah, there is none! There are buildings, stores, houses, but no city. What is this strange place? People travel primarily by individual automobile, usually alone. I look for the city, but there is no city to be found, not here at least. | ||
Novine Member Username: Novine Post Number: 697 Registered: 07-2007 |
Troy swallowed Clawson. If you drive down 14 Mile and don't blink, you might see it. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1161 Registered: 11-2003 |
W_chicago, that's most of America today, frankly. You can get a sneak preview of that future you describe if you take a little drive through Hazel Park or Warren south of 696 - I like Dequindre for a "oh shit, this is the suburbs now?" run - or Southfield next to 8 mile, for that matter. Lowell has a wonderful tour, here are some links where you can see your personal apocalypse... now. https://www.detroityes.com/webisode s/2002/8mile/021106-08-8mile-f ederal.htm https://www.detroityes.com/webisode s/2002/8mile/021106-11-8mile-k mart.htm https://www.detroityes.com/webisode s/2002/8mile/021106-18-8mile-m oviehouse.htm | ||
Goat Member Username: Goat Post Number: 10315 Registered: 10-2003 |
Other than DV have any of you pushed to have your political party make these very changes or put through legislation to promote what is it you are seeking? Lots of talk but not much action up in here. | ||
Higgs1634 Member Username: Higgs1634 Post Number: 638 Registered: 10-2005 |
quote: But Goat, what about the letter writing campaigns to avenge slights in the national media and advocating boycotts of businesses that do not respect Detroit. (like that of Comerica)? The board awaits an apology. | ||
Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1610 Registered: 03-2008 |
Not true at all Goat. Many of us do a lot... | ||
Goat Member Username: Goat Post Number: 10317 Registered: 10-2003 |
..of talk. Many of you will come and go when you find a job that pays you $2.00/hr. Good for you. But don't put on the "let's do something" hat, yap about it and then move on. Put your money whree your mouth is, move to the city and organize. Higgs, yup that really showed Comerica! | ||
Mwilbert Member Username: Mwilbert Post Number: 350 Registered: 11-2007 |
The idea that government "can't" do anything to restrict sprawl is silly--all the infrastructure that enables sprawl requires government permission if not support. As people have pointed out, the problem is that there are lots of governments and their activities are not coordinated, and the beneficiaries of sprawl are a powerful interest group at all levels of government. But all the cities and towns are creatures of the state, and the state has the power to fix this problem. I see no sign that it is going to do any such thing. But it could. | ||
Sean_of_detroit Member Username: Sean_of_detroit Post Number: 1633 Registered: 03-2008 |
Who are you talking about? DYES in general? Many of us do a lot of work. Many of us here have done volunteer work, opened businesses, vote, write letters, write articles, attend protests, started petitions, signed other people's petitions, talk positively to others about our region, contribute to trade groups and other associations, attend Detroit events, shop in Detroit, live in Detroit, encourage others to move to Detroit... do I need to go on? Many more have stayed through high crime, and hard times... and a large amount joined despite those things. I don't see a whole lot of "just talk" on here. A lot of the talk you do see, is talk about things we aren't doing, simply because we each can only do so much. Detroit has come a long way in just the past five years. (Message edited by Sean_of_Detroit on August 26, 2008) | ||
Schiff Member Username: Schiff Post Number: 2 Registered: 06-2005 |
"Detroit has been hit hardest" is really misleading, because we've been over 20% office vacancy (for the entire metro area) since 2002. Also that 22.6% is for the metro area... Detroit itself is more like 25-29%. Keep in mind also, commercial companies only track specific types of buildings, so outdated/abandoned buildings, pending redevelopment projects, even single tenant office buildings generally aren't included in these stats. | ||
Ray Member Username: Ray Post Number: 1144 Registered: 06-2004 |
Troy has the highest vacancy rate in the area, over 25%. I love the city of Detroit, run down though it may be. I have nothing but the purest hatred, however, for the built environment and culture of suburban Detroit: an ugly, petty, mediocre, dehumanizing, stupid, congested, failing, ill-conceived, pile of barf. If there is a nuclear war, I hope the first shot is an airblast 50,000 feet over the Palace of Auburn Hills. As I am eviscerated by the blast wave, I will experience a transcendant joy knowing this cluster fuck has been wiped off the face of the planet. | ||
Digitalvision Member Username: Digitalvision Post Number: 1193 Registered: 11-2003 |
Tell us how you really feel, Ray. Seriously, that was the best use of "eviscerated" I have seen. I know they're high in Troy and in some part due to their own decisions around rebuilding and the shift to Bloomfield Hills and other more northern outlays. If we ever meet you get a beer for the rant with the highest level of vocabulary, and the ability to keep it clean at the same time. | ||
Lefty2 Member Username: Lefty2 Post Number: 1956 Registered: 07-2007 |
Ray, I want you on my next con mission. | ||
Saintme Member Username: Saintme Post Number: 218 Registered: 08-2006 |
"When I go to parties and networking events out in Troy and everyone's talking about how fashionable it is to be north of Big Beaver" Sounds like a boring-@ss party. Or a boring @ss-party. (Message edited by Saintme on August 29, 2008) |
