  Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1024 Registered: 12-2006 |
From today's News: Violent crime falls in state's largest cities Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News Violent crime in Detroit fell substantially during the first six months of 2007, led by a sharp decline in rapes, robberies and assaults, according to a report from the FBI released today. You want the whole article: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pb cs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/U PDATE/801070420 | ||
Detroitnerd Member Username: Detroitnerd Post Number: 1745 Registered: 07-2004 |
The population also declined substantially. ;) | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1025 Registered: 12-2006 |
I'm not sure what the rate of decline is, but I'm pretty sure it's nowhere near the decline in violent crime. Does anyone know of a good, official-style estimate for Detroit's population delta from '06 to '07? Is it still even declining? | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1026 Registered: 12-2006 |
Never mind the question, I found it. According to SEMCOG, Detroit's population at the end of '06 is estimated at 868,822 and at the end of '07 is estimated at 836784. That's a 3.7% decrease, so a corresponding decrease in violent crime is thus explained away. Anything beyond that is an actual decrease per capita. | ||
Detroitnerd Member Username: Detroitnerd Post Number: 1746 Registered: 07-2004 |
Gosh, prof., I was just kidding around! FWIW, the pop. stats don't show any causality ... 8P | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 4763 Registered: 10-2004 |
When the news is bad--but not as bad as before--those covering up the bad prefer to portray the less bad as a drop in rates. For instance, the schools were less bad for the previous time interval. However, in this case, the so-called improvement was probably due to fewer people. In any event, the crime rates in SE Michigan are high--both in relative and absolute terms--and have been. Nothing really newsworthy there... | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1027 Registered: 12-2006 |
I respectfully disagree, LY, less of a bad thing is always good. We hear plenty of bad, and there's nothing wrong with a little good when it comes. I thought I addressed, in detail, the "due to fewer people" issue, and I agree the crime rates are still too high. I won't go as far as Richard Nixon, who in trying to justify his economic policies in the early 1970s once said the rate of inflation was increasing more slowly than it had been. If you need to go as far as the third derivative to get good news, you're stretching too far. But in this case it's an actual decrease, whether you look at raw numbers or you divide into per capita numbers. | ||
El_jimbo Member Username: El_jimbo Post Number: 481 Registered: 12-2006 |
LY, what are you talking about? Based on the numbers in the article compared to the SEMCOG estimates, property crimes fell in Detroit at twice the rate of population loss, car thefts fell at over 3 times the rate of population loss and Arson fell at over 10 times the rate of population loss. Those types of numbers would have a significant effect on the per capita totals for those crimes. | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1028 Registered: 12-2006 |
El_jimbo, LY plays many roles on this board, one of them being resident cynic as you see here. He is quite knowledgeable, and if an 8 ounce glass always has four ounces of water in it he will point out that it is half empty. (My engineering professor friends will point out that such a glass is badly overdesigned.) | ||
E_hemingway Member Username: E_hemingway Post Number: 1499 Registered: 11-2004 |
Professor: I'm not sure how accurate those SEMCOG population numbers are right now. I normally wouldn't question them, but didn't the Social Compact studies determine there was something like 930,000 residents in the city? Didn't that same study force the census to recently readjust its numbers? I could be wrong but that's what I remember reading recently. | ||
Detroitnerd Member Username: Detroitnerd Post Number: 1747 Registered: 07-2004 |
Just to chime in with dark levity, maybe there's less left worth stealing? ;) | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 4764 Registered: 10-2004 |
The big rub for crime stats in Detroit is that many types of crimes are never reported due to the attitudes of the DPD toward crime. Murders are reported because murdered bodies tend to appear. Likewise, arsons are noticed due to fires being hard to miss. And we really don't even have an accurate take on the real population around here. The so-called population correction recently was a statistical approximation--not an enumeration. Stats can be interpreted and rigged to prove just about anything. In the Detroit population case, pushed by the Social Compact, they probably were. And newspapers today seem to be doing a fair amount of cheerleading instead of objectively reporting the news without their editorializing within the news articles themselves. Reporters seem to insert lots of hypotheticals into their stories. Is this the kind of education that the journalism schools now turn out? | ||
Bearinabox Member Username: Bearinabox Post Number: 471 Registered: 04-2006 |
quote:Assuming that you are correct that there is a significant number of unreported crimes, is there any reason to believe that the number of unreported crimes sufficiently increased in the first half of 2007 to offset the decrease reported in the original article? | ||
Professorscott Member Username: Professorscott Post Number: 1029 Registered: 12-2006 |
LY, I'm not sure what the problem is with modern journalism, but I think it comes from the top. Budgets are slashed so there's not much real investigative reporting. When I worked on a college newspaper, I got to see lots of press releases from various PR firms, and was astonished to hear them read as if news on the radio, and published unedited in some of the local papers. But what you say about crime is true year by year, so down is still down. If Detroiters are only reporting, let's say, half of all burglaries, and the reported burglaries are down x percent, then the real burglaries are also down x percent. Same for population estimates, which these admittedly are. If they're off, they're probably off by roughly the same amount year after year. The census itself is known to be incorrect, but of course the error can't be precisely quantified. SEMCOG, of course, does not listen to the Social Compact people, as its estimates clearly show. I think the Social Compact folks are still pressing for a 900K-plus number. Prof. Scott | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 4765 Registered: 10-2004 |
The reported crimes are high in themselves. Any changes, plus or minus, might amount to statistical noise. In any event, nothing much changes from one reporting period to another. The city and region pretty much is the same. The important long-term trends (the real indicators to trust) usually show the same: city, county, and state population is dropping. Fewer in their twenties are sticking around. Fewer jobs, especially in manufacturing. Distressed businesses, bankruptcies, and foreclosures. Much-talked-up, overpriced condo projects in the CBD were scrapped. People complaining that there are few groceries downtown--there's another story on that in today's paper... Practically nobody was talking about the numerous, oncoming bankruptcies in the Tiers three or four years ago. Now, virtually everybody should know or feel their effects. And on and on. But now, there's some good news on crime. All of a sudden, people will feel so much safer and better off... | ||
Granmontrules Member Username: Granmontrules Post Number: 285 Registered: 01-2007 |
Livernoisyard will never say anything nice about Detroit. No matter what the news is good. Down 12% according to the FBI is great. | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 4766 Registered: 10-2004 |
When the job situation significantly improves, then I'll modify my views. This area will keep dying without jobs. Until then, crime, DPS and other secondary (although, major) problems don't really matter much. Even though, the crime situation was enough for Prof. Scott to emigrate from the city of Detroit. But, he works there. Notice the difference, Gran? | ||
Danny Member Username: Danny Post Number: 6942 Registered: 02-2004 |
Violent crime is down. I DON'T THINK SO! The data maybe factual but they are still brothers killing brothers in the ghettos od Detroit. | ||
Granmontrules Member Username: Granmontrules Post Number: 286 Registered: 01-2007 |
Livernoisyard- You are just consistently negative on every thread about everything. I am sure you are a hoot at a party! | ||
7051 Member Username: 7051 Post Number: 56 Registered: 02-2006 |
The arson statistic reported by DPD is and has been useless in the last 30 years. The arson number reported by police (and received from DFD stats) most likely includes only OCCUPIED BUILDING(maybe auto fires) fires which ARE ACTUALLY INVESTIGATED BY THE ARSON DIVISION. Anywhere from 50-65% of all (vacant/abandoned/occupied) structure fires we respond to are ARSON. Any politician, department head, etc. that publicly states different is lying or is out of touch with what goes on in the city. In fact, anywhere from 60-75% of the structure fires we respond to are vacant and/or abandoned buildings-that is why the city's fire rate is off the charts even when compared to other large US cities. I have several friends who work for New York and other big cities-they often tell me how they go several weeks or months without a fire. A few weeks of work days in Detroit may include 10-30 fires for any given firefighter. 99.9% of the vacant/abandoned building fires we respond to are arson because buildings which do not have occupants and/or operating utilities DO NOT spontaneously combust! Furthermore, when fire reports are completed by firefighters in the suppression division(especially for vacant /abandoned building fires) the cause is usually listed as undetermined on the report as we in the suppression division are not trained arson investigators. Yes, most times the "how" a vacant property caught fire is obvious to us, but the "why" and most importantly, the "who" is unknown to us in suppression and would require an investigation by the Arson division. Damn near 100% of the abandoned and vacant building fires are never investigated by the arson division as we would need an arson division about as large as the suppression divison to do this. Arson fires where loss of life or in-use property was involved are the investigative priority. Remember, there is a distinction(not by the DFD but by any urban-smart person) between vacant or abandoned. Vacant means not occupied but someone has ownership(investor, homeowner, city, state county, bank owned, etc.) and the property is able to be occupied or at least occupied with renovations/repairs. Abandoned refers to a property that is not occupied, could not be occupied in its current condition and does not have an owner to make rapairs/renovations. I know, "all properties have owners even if they are the city, county, state, bank". My definition of owner is one who still has a financial interest of some sort or who actually gives a shit about the property. Many times, this last qualifier will put about 80% of the vacant properties into the abandoned category. At any given point in time, Detroit has 8,000-12,000 units of vacant housing and commercial space. Compare this to New York's or Chicago's 2,000-3,000 units and one quickly understands why Detroit still burns like no other big city in America. Last night, I went to 2 separate(not uncommon) fires in the same vacant/but possibly not abandoned house. The first fire burned out part of the 1st floor and the attic. The second fire 2 hours later burned off the entire roof, attic and 1/2 of the first floor. This was on a block(includes both sides of the street) that was about 40% vacant lots, 15% occupied dwellings and 45% vacant/abandoned dwellings. This was in the Ryan-Mound, south of Davison area but is typical of hundreds of blocks I have seen in all 4 corners of the city. The previously described scenario occurs between 10 and 30 times per EVERY 24 hour period in the city as a whole. 2 pages of vacant dwelling fires pictures for the disbelievers.... http://www.youngstownfire.com/ forums/index.php/topic,5857.0. html? The FBI's 2006 stats list just over 1,700 arson fires in detroit. The Dept. does about 32,000 non-ems runs per year. It is very hard to find DFD statistics-even on the Web-just like DPD stats. Last I recall, about 10,000-14,000 of the calls were fire of some type-structure, car, trash, etc. Let's assume 5,000 are structure fires. 1,700 arson fires per year/365 days=5 or less arson fires per 24 shift. I find this very difficult to believe as I can tell you that some 24 hr. shifts may have as many as 20-25 vacant dwelling fires city wide. These are all arson, but probably not logged as such due to their abandoned/vacant nature. In very rare instances, an arson car may be called to vacant dwelling fires because the perp. is held by residents or a witness is available, but even then it seems that about 50% of the time an arson car is not even available. This in the arson capital of the US! Maybe DFD of FFDFD can comment? | ||
Livernoisyard Member Username: Livernoisyard Post Number: 4768 Registered: 10-2004 |
And Gran is negative about anybody who steps upon his toes or those who don't see any sense in taking a blind eye to obvious negatives. Apparently, some are more easily brainwashed (by teachers, maybe?) into believing that the improbable or impossible can be done. When a city's crime rate is several times higher (for the benefit of anybody not well-tutored in math-- of percentage points higher than the national average), a 12% drop doesn't really amount too much of anything. That means it's only a wee bit better off compared to the rest of the others. Get it? Yet, Detroit's residents would opt to choose a nasty crime rate over its numero uno unemployment rate. For those who don't know how Detroit compared in the previous year--2006--with other cities, check the Wiki for the crime rates of other cities near the size of Detroit (the category over 250,000). Detroit's ranked #1 then. Even with an improvement, consider how much more crime the other cities would need to add and come anywhere close to Detroit. (Message edited by Livernoisyard on January 08, 2008) | ||
Ffdfd Member Username: Ffdfd Post Number: 246 Registered: 09-2006 |
7051, you broke it down as well as I could. I don't know how the official arson numbers are arrived at or how often arson investigates vacant/abandoned structure fires, but my spidey senses tell me 1,700 arson fires per year is way off. | ||
Warriorfan Member Username: Warriorfan Post Number: 873 Registered: 08-2005 |
Since Detroit still finished with over 400 murders this past year, I'd say that some of those drops in crime in the first half of 2007 were likely tempered by the numbers from the second half of the year. | ||
Mind_field Member Username: Mind_field Post Number: 851 Registered: 10-2003 |
hmmmm, where is the final murder count at for '07? I haven't seen it yet. | ||
Mind_field Member Username: Mind_field Post Number: 852 Registered: 10-2003 |
Ok, per the Detroit News article, the city had 396 homicides in '07, down from 418 in '06. Still ridiculously high. | ||
Dpd_blue Member Username: Dpd_blue Post Number: 201 Registered: 05-2005 |
It's not a crime if it's never reported!••• Burglaries and Robberies are as high as I have ever seen it. DPD has tendency to massage crime stats by turning the reported crime into a lessor crime category. | ||
Lmcdet Member Username: Lmcdet Post Number: 32 Registered: 06-2007 |
Isn't that the same thing official have been doing in NY and CHI and many other cities for years.... as small of a change it is in murders it's a change. Maybe the mentality is changing a bit. It seem that anytime there is a drop in the crime, it's automatically attributed to loss of population. The folks doing these acts aren't leaving the city. The are various reason for drops, I know 396 is to high , but so is 1. I take in victory just as that a victory. | ||
Viziondetroit Member Username: Viziondetroit Post Number: 1349 Registered: 11-2003 |
I doubt the criminals involved in the crimes moved away- unless you can show a increase in prison populations lol. Then we just have one big old domino effect. | ||
Tigers2005 Member Username: Tigers2005 Post Number: 176 Registered: 02-2005 |
Based on mindfield's homicide numbers and Prof Scott's populations, it amounts to a drop in the murder rate from 48.1 to 47.3 per 100,000 people. That would be equivalent to a decline from 403 to 396 using the same (2007) population. We need to do better. | ||
Lmcdet Member Username: Lmcdet Post Number: 33 Registered: 06-2007 |
Sorry for the grammar.... doing a bit of multi-tasking. Isn't that the same thing officials have been doing in NY and CHI and many other cities for years.... Even though it's a small change in murders, it's a change. Maybe the mentality is changing a bit. It seem that anytime there's a drop in the crime, it's automatically attributed to loss of population. The folks doing these acts aren't necessarily leaving the city. There are various reason for drops in crime. I know 396 is to high , but so is 1. I take a victory just as that, a victory. | ||
Club_boss Member Username: Club_boss Post Number: 271 Registered: 12-2006 |
2006 Figures  | ||
7051 Member Username: 7051 Post Number: 60 Registered: 02-2006 |
Anyone who believes the recent crime stats that arson is down 32% needs to read the following email text I received from an amateur fire photographer. I will try to post the corresponding photos at a later date. "As some of you all know I made a trip to Detroit this past weekend with the soul purpose to photograph fires with the Detroit Fire Dept. This is my second trip to Detroit since Nov 2. The first trip didn't turn out as eventful as this recent trip. On this trip I shot about a dozen different working fires and made it to over 20 in a period of 48hrs. The arson rate is unbelievable there. I thought I had witnessed some crazy things shooting fires in Memphis but not until I went to Detroit this past weekend. Essentially to compare Memphis has a ghetto, Detroit is a Ghetto. I figured id share some photos with you all, as some have requested to see them. Thursday was the coldest night, with single digit temps, high winds and a wind chill of -20 to -30. Enjoy ! Kevin Lackey "We will start out with the first fire on Thursday. Engine 9 arrived on the scene of this 3 story apartment with fire showing from the first floor, making way to the 3rd floor via the exterior of the building. Chief 5 arrived on the scene and advised the dwelling was "going through out" and requested a 4th Engine to make the scene. This fire was caused by a Molotov Cocktail. The Second fire came in about 20 mins after we cleared the Apt Fire. Eng 34 and the rest of the Companies were sent on a Box Alarm, fire reported in a commercial Building. Engine 34 arrived on the scene and advised they were stretching on a large commercial dwelling with heavy fire showing. Shortly there after, E34 requested a 2nd alarm be sounded. The building housed a Scrap Yard of some sorts, with the building full of automobiles. While we were at the warehouse fire, Companies began working several other dwelling fires throughout the city. We made a decision to leave the 2nd Alarm and take in another job not far away on 18th and Bagley. We arrived on the scene to find two 2.5 story dwellings fully involved with a third 1.5 story occupied dwelling catching. Chief 8 arrived on the scene and called for 2 additional Engines and Truck on top of the 3 Engines and 2 Trucks and a Squad. We left the dwelling fires on 18th at Bagley and to ANOTHER dwelling fire near by. E33 reported on the scene "Sretching on a Dwelling" We left the following fire and caught yet ANOTHER dwelling fire with E46. Central advised that they had received numerous calls with reports of occupants trapped. Chief 9 reported on the scene with heavy fire showing and first due Engine will be stretching. Several attempts were made to enter the residence with a line were made, but were forced to retreat. Conditions were horrible as the basement, first floor and attic space contained heavy fire. The fire took the life of a 13 year old teenager whom was still in bed when found. The cause of the fire was to be blamed on the home being heated with 2 stoves. We couldn't finish the night out with out one more house fire around 430am. We arrived a little late on this one with Engine 60, on the north side of Chief 9's District. " "Not much to show from the fires on Friday, we responded on 2 Box Alarms, both dwelling fires, with a little smoke showing on our arrival. However Saturday night was busy Starting Saturday night, we went to Dearborn which borders Detroit to the west. Dearborn FD arrived on the scene of a large refinery with heavy heavy heavy fire showing and multiple explosions reported. DFD reported to have a large ruptured line within the refinery, with multiple cars on fire, buildings on fire and several workers missing. We were unable to shoot any photos as we weren't close enough and the fog was so intense the photos would not have turned out well. Mutual Aid was provided by Detroit EMS for transporting numerous patients. As the fire at the Refinery was being brought under control we responded on a report of a Apartment building on fire. E49 arrived on the scene and had heavy fire showing and was dumping their monitor. Not long after the Apartment building, we went to this Well Involved dwelling which was the 4th fire working at the same time and the 2nd time this particular house was on fire today. The arsonist just came back to do the job right the second time. This was the 4th fire in Chief 8's district in a couple hours This Apartment building was to follow on the north side of town. I will be finishing up the photos from the last house fire we made it to. Fire in a occupied 2 story dwelling with Chief 8 making it his 5th fire of the day. We arrived late on this fire, but got this great shot of Ladder 17 power venting the house as they were mopping up. Last Photo.....Squad 5 picking up from their 12th house fire of the shift at 0430hrs, which is the above fire. They said they were going back to the house, for Fish Sandwiches and Coffee and to wait on their 13th fire before they go home. 95% of the photos you have seen were all caused by Arson... " |
